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“Paetongtarn Shinawatra emerged as the most favored candidate for the prime ministerial post in Thailand, garnering 30.90% of support in a recent Nida Poll.”

Verdict

🔴Mostly False

Confidence

Moderate Evidence Confidence

Solid evidence with some gaps or secondary sources.

Nida Poll· 10/1/2026

What We Found

The claim that Paetongtarn Shinawatra is currently the most favored candidate for prime minister with 30.90% support in a recent Nida Poll is outdated and inaccurate. While she previously held that level of support in early 2025, subsequent Nida Polls from 2026 show her popularity has significantly declined, with other candidates like Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut and Anutin Charnvirakul leading in more recent surveys.

Evidence

The claim references a specific statistic (30.90%) attributed to a Nida Poll regarding Paetongtarn Shinawatra's popularity as a prime ministerial candidate. Research confirms that this figure corresponds to data from the first quarter of 2025. However, the claim presents this as a current status, which is contradicted by multiple, more recent Nida Poll surveys conducted throughout 2026. For instance, a second-quarter 2026 Nida Poll reported that Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut led with 26.08% support, while Paetongtarn's support had dropped significantly to 9.20% by mid-2025. By late 2026, other political figures such as Anutin Charnvirakul have also been featured in polling as leading contenders. Therefore, citing the 30.90% figure as a current reflection of her standing is misleading as it ignores the significant decline in her public support over the past year.

What's Missing or Misleading

The claim fails to specify that the 30.90% figure is from an outdated 2025 survey. It omits the fact that subsequent, more recent polls show a substantial decline in Paetongtarn Shinawatra's popularity and a shift in the political landscape.

Sources Reviewed (4)

Thai Times

Poll Reveals Shifts in Thai Political Landscape Ahead of Upcoming Elections

Published unknownAccessed 2026-10-24View
The Nation

People’s Party leads NIDA Poll as Bhumjaithai support falls

Published 2023-03-26Accessed 2026-10-24View
Wikipedia

Paetongtarn cabinet

Published 2024-08-18Accessed 2026-10-24View
NIDA PollPrimary

Political Popularity Survey for the Fourth Quarter of 2025

Published 2026-07-04Accessed 2026-10-24View

Primary Sources

NIDA PollPrimary

Political Popularity Survey for the Fourth Quarter of 2025

Accessed 2026-10-24View
AI-Generated Analysis

This fact-check was generated by automated AI research. It has not been examined by a human reviewer.

Fact-Check History

First checked: 10/1/2026
Last updated: 10/1/2026
Last verified: 10/1/2026