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“New York leads the nation in population loss.”

Verdict

🟢Mostly True

Confidence

Moderate Evidence Confidence

Solid evidence with some gaps or secondary sources.

Marc Molinaro· 9/27/2026

What We Found

New York has frequently led the nation in both numeric and percentage population decline in recent years according to U.S. Census Bureau data, particularly during the 2021-2023 period. However, population trends are dynamic, and rankings can shift depending on the specific timeframe and whether the metric is total population change or domestic migration.

Evidence

The claim that New York leads the nation in population loss is supported by multiple years of U.S. Census Bureau data. For the period ending July 1, 2023, New York recorded the largest numeric population decline of any state (approximately 102,000 residents) and one of the highest percentage declines (0.5%). Similar trends were observed in the 2021-2022 period, where New York saw a decline of approximately 180,000 people (0.9%). While New York consistently ranks at or near the top for population loss, it is important to distinguish between 'total population change' (which includes births, deaths, and international migration) and 'domestic migration' (people moving between states). In some metrics, other states like California have also shown significant numeric losses in domestic migration. Because population data is updated annually, the claim is accurate for the specific years cited in recent reporting, though it may not hold true for every single reporting cycle or metric.

What's Missing or Misleading

The claim often refers to specific annual snapshots. Population trends are subject to change; for instance, while New York led in decline for several years, other states may experience similar or higher rates of loss in different timeframes depending on economic and social factors.

Sources Reviewed (3)

U.S. Census BureauPrimary

Press Kit: Vintage 2023 National and State Population Estimates

Published 2023-12-19Accessed 2025-05-14View
Newsday

Census data shows New York again atop U.S. for declining population

Published 2023-12-20Accessed 2025-05-14View
FOX 5 New York

New York sees largest population decline of 50 states in 2023: census

Published 2023-12-28Accessed 2025-05-14View

Primary Sources

U.S. Census BureauPrimary

Vintage 2023 National and State Population Estimates

Accessed 2025-05-14View
AI-Generated Analysis

This fact-check was generated by automated AI research. It has not been examined by a human reviewer.

Fact-Check History

First checked: 9/27/2026
Last updated: 9/27/2026
Last verified: 9/27/2026